Case studies

Hard questions, answered properly with data

Each case study takes a question people argue about, finds the data, builds a model that survives tough testing, and turns the result into something a business can act on. All the code is published, so you can check every number.

4end-to-end projects
130k+simulated tests and reviews analysed
2live tools built from the models
100%of code and data published
Machine learning · NLP
1%of today's AI reviews caught by a detector trained on 2019's fakes

Can a model spot an AI-written review?

A detector that catches 86% of AI reviews while wrongly flagging 1% of genuine ones, the blind spot that makes older detectors useless, and a live demo you can try.

Machine learningNLPTrust and safetyModel evaluationExplainable AI
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Simulation · Financial modelling
1.4–30+years for buying to beat renting, depending on place and prices

Is renting really “dead money”? A decision model tested against 21 years of history

A month-by-month simulation of a six-figure decision, a 2005–2026 backtest, sensitivity to rates and prices, and a calculator anyone can use.

SimulationFinancial modellingBacktestingSensitivity analysisPython and R
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Causal inference · Econometrics
r = 0.01correlation between AI exposure and job change, 2019–2025

Is AI taking jobs? Testing the claim on 722 occupations

Linking AI usage data to employment, controlling for confounders, and a placebo test that shows the headline “effect” was there before ChatGPT.

Causal inferenceRegressionPlacebo testData linkageLabour market
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Experimentation · Monte Carlo
24.6%of no-difference tests call a winner when checked daily

Your A/B test “winner” may be noise: what 100,000 simulated tests show

A Monte Carlo study of the most common A/B testing mistake, and a sequential stopping rule that lets you look every day without fooling yourself.

ExperimentationA/B testingMonte Carlo simulationSequential testingStatistics
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What these projects show we can do for you

The same methods apply to your data, whether you sell online, lend money, run experiments or plan a workforce.

Machine learning and NLP

Classifiers that hold up on data they have never seen, explained in plain English and deployed where they are needed.

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Causal inference

Separating cause from coincidence with controls, fixed effects and placebo tests before anyone acts on a correlation.

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Simulation and Monte Carlo

Thousands of simulated scenarios to show how often a process fails and what fixes it.

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Decision and financial models

Month-by-month models of big decisions, with sensitivity analysis and a historical backtest.

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Experimentation

A/B test design, sample sizes and stopping rules that keep false winners at the rate you signed up for.

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Tools people can use

Calculators and lookup tools that run in the browser, checked against the analysis code to the decimal.

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How a project works

Fixed scope, a written plan before any modelling, and results you can audit.

Frame the question

A 30-minute call to pin down the decision you need to make and what a useful answer looks like.

Audit the data

What you have, what is missing and what public data can fill the gaps, with a fixed quote.

Model and stress-test

Methods chosen for your question, then tested on data the model has not seen, with the limits stated.

Deliver and hand over

A plain-English report, the code, and a tool or dashboard if you need one, with a walkthrough for your team.

These case studies are independent projects built on public data to show our methods. They are not client engagements, and no client data was used.

Have a question your data should be able to answer?

Tell us the decision you are facing. We will tell you, for free, whether data can settle it and what it would take.